====== Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of October 18, 2016 ====== 
** Present Monday: Austin, Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie **

** Present Tuesday: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie **

===== Updates =====
  * Ask Sharif to meet with us

===== Meeting with Dr. Kuh =====
===== Expectations =====
  * 3D plot: 2011, 2012 normalized and unnormalized for comparison
  * LA more variation, but smoother
  * Moving Average and Decimation/Downsample
  * D and X from 2011:
  * X = 8:00-4:00 (input data)
  * D = 9:00-5:00 (normalized and downsampled, column)
  * Y = Least Squares Equation = W.T(X) row = X.T(W) column
  * Unnormalized = D bar, Y bar
    * Statistical:
      * Y - sig*Y + m
      * D - sig*D + m
    * Zenith:
      * Y*cos(theta)
      * D*cos(theta)
  * W = (XX.T)^(-1)*XD <= XX.T*W = XD
  * E^2 Averaged = (D-Y)^2 for every time
  * MSE = 1/m (||D-Y||)^2
  * Don't need r bc cancel
  * Ask Seyed what he did for decimation/downsample
    * 1) Average and down sample
    * 2) Take moving average
    * Overlapping data points:
      * 8:01-8:10 moving average
      * Then downsample
  * Filter then normalize
  * <del>Normalize then filter</del>
    * **Normalization: mean then deviation**
    * Zenith Angle Filter: Zenith angle is from the 5th minute, 5 irradiance is averaged
      * Bias term
        * Number of taps is # present + number before
          * 1 tap = present
          * 2 tap = present + future (5 mins in our case)
        * In weight matrix
          * Row of 1's to the matrix to get bias term
    * Statistical normalization: -mean/deviation
      * Standard normalization 0 mean
  * Estimate will need to be given back after the normalization
  * 3D plot for both zenith and stat normalization
  * Plot MSE
    * y = MSE, x = # taps
    * Train error goes down, test error decreases until flattens or increases
  * Check 2012 MSE test against 2011 MSE train
    * Keep 2011 W
    * Get new X, D to compute new Y
  * Flip: 2011 MSE test against 2012 MSE train
  * Correlation is 3D plot
    * R=(1/m)XX.T= 10x10 matrix that is symmetric