forecasting:meeting_minutes_october_18_2016

Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of October 18, 2016

Present Monday: Austin, Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie

Present Tuesday: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie

  • Ask Sharif to meet with us
  • 3D plot: 2011, 2012 normalized and unnormalized for comparison
  • LA more variation, but smoother
  • Moving Average and Decimation/Downsample
  • D and X from 2011:
  • X = 8:00-4:00 (input data)
  • D = 9:00-5:00 (normalized and downsampled, column)
  • Y = Least Squares Equation = W.T(X) row = X.T(W) column
  • Unnormalized = D bar, Y bar
    • Statistical:
      • Y - sig*Y + m
      • D - sig*D + m
    • Zenith:
      • Y*cos(theta)
      • D*cos(theta)
  • W = (XX.T)^(-1)*XD ⇐ XX.T*W = XD
  • E^2 Averaged = (D-Y)^2 for every time
  • MSE = 1/m (||D-Y||)^2
  • Don't need r bc cancel
  • Ask Seyed what he did for decimation/downsample
    • 1) Average and down sample
    • 2) Take moving average
    • Overlapping data points:
      • 8:01-8:10 moving average
      • Then downsample
  • Filter then normalize
  • Normalize then filter
    • Normalization: mean then deviation
    • Zenith Angle Filter: Zenith angle is from the 5th minute, 5 irradiance is averaged
      • Bias term
        • Number of taps is # present + number before
          • 1 tap = present
          • 2 tap = present + future (5 mins in our case)
        • In weight matrix
          • Row of 1's to the matrix to get bias term
    • Statistical normalization: -mean/deviation
      • Standard normalization 0 mean
  • Estimate will need to be given back after the normalization
  • 3D plot for both zenith and stat normalization
  • Plot MSE
    • y = MSE, x = # taps
    • Train error goes down, test error decreases until flattens or increases
  • Check 2012 MSE test against 2011 MSE train
    • Keep 2011 W
    • Get new X, D to compute new Y
  • Flip: 2011 MSE test against 2012 MSE train
  • Correlation is 3D plot
    • R=(1/m)XX.T= 10×10 matrix that is symmetric

Authors

Contributing authors:

jobatake

Created by jobatake on 2016/10/19 02:43.

  • forecasting/meeting_minutes_october_18_2016.txt
  • Last modified: 2021/09/19 21:59
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