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forecasting:meeting_minutes_october_25_2016 [2016/10/26 02:41] jobatake |
forecasting:meeting_minutes_october_25_2016 [2021/09/19 21:59] (current) |
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| - | ====== Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of October 18, 2016 ====== | + | ====== Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of October 25, 2016 ====== |
| - | ** Present Monday: Austin, Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie ** | + | ** Present Tuesday: Austin, Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie ** |
| - | ** Present Tuesday: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie ** | + | ** Present Wednesday: ** |
| ===== Updates ===== | ===== Updates ===== | ||
| Line 9: | Line 9: | ||
| ===== Meeting with Dr. Kuh ===== | ===== Meeting with Dr. Kuh ===== | ||
| ===== Expectations ===== | ===== Expectations ===== | ||
| + | * All of this is normalized (w/ Zenith Angle) | ||
| * X' = [X / 1 1 1 1 1 1] | * X' = [X / 1 1 1 1 1 1] | ||
| * X'.T = [X.T | 1] | * X'.T = [X.T | 1] | ||
| * X'*X'.T = [__X*X.T__ | **X1**] | * X'*X'.T = [__X*X.T__ | **X1**] | ||
| - | * [1.T*X.T | m] | + | * [1.T*X.T | m ] |
| * (X'*X'.T)/m | * (X'*X'.T)/m | ||
| *** Mean**: X1/m | *** Mean**: X1/m | ||
| - | *__ Correlation__: X*X.T/m | + | *__ Correlation(R)__ : X*X.T/m |
| + | * Samples along diagonal of correlation matrix should be similar | ||
| + | * Like toeplitz matrix | ||
| + | * Right-hand bottom corner needs to be 1 | ||
| + | * Number of columns (m) in array rows (n) | ||
| + | * Number of times you are doing prediction | ||
| + | * Estimate 9-5 (8 hours, every 5 mins, 96 solar irradiance times/day *365 days/year= 35040 solar irradiance data points/year) | ||
| + | * Diagonals same and symmetrical | ||
| + | * 1's on bottom are for the zenith normalized data | ||
| + | * Do not need for the statistically normalized data | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | * Types of Prediction: | ||
| + | * Average | ||
| + | * Persistence: Most recent value for prediction (tap=1) | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Python programming help from Sharif tomorrow | ||
| + | * MSE value: D-Y=E(365*96) | ||
| + | * Inner product of E/entries = 2D array | ||
| + | * (Sum |E|^2)^.5 | ||
| + | * Root Mean Squared Working this week | ||
| + | * Training to use same data for RMS | ||
| + | * Go down with number of taps increasing | ||
| + | * Take square root of the error | ||
| + | * (90,000)^.5 = 300 | ||
| + | * Weight for taps | ||
| + | * Positive values | ||
| + | * Decrease in value | ||
| + | * Train on 2011 and test on 2012 | ||
| + | * Train on 2012 and test on 2011 | ||
| + | * RMS graphs for the 2011 (Test and train) and 2012 (test and train) | ||
| + | * Higher on test than training | ||
| + | * Can become higher though | ||
| + | * More time then train based on seasons | ||
| + | * Winter 2011/2012, Spring 2011/2012, Summer 2011/2012, and Fall 2011/2012 | ||
| + | * Interested in power solar panels will be making | ||
| + | |||