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forecasting:meeting_minutes_september_13_2016 [2016/09/08 04:28] bsundberg created |
forecasting:meeting_minutes_september_13_2016 [2021/09/19 21:59] (current) |
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| ====== Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of September 13, 2016 ====== | ====== Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of September 13, 2016 ====== | ||
| - | ** Present: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie, Austin ** | + | ** Present: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie ** |
| ===== Updates ===== | ===== Updates ===== | ||
| * Modified Meeting Hours: Tuesday 4:30-7:00 & Thursday 4:30-7:00 | * Modified Meeting Hours: Tuesday 4:30-7:00 & Thursday 4:30-7:00 | ||
| - | Saturday, September 10, 2016 | + | Saturday, September 10, 2016 (Proposal Presentations) |
| - | Proposal Presentations | + | |
| - | Tuesday, September 13, 2016 | ||
| - | * | ||
| - | Thursday, September 15, 2016 | + | Tuesday, September 13, 2016 |
| - | * | + | * Produce: |
| + | * Well-written code | ||
| + | * New python libraries to pull off of | ||
| + | * Build library of functions other groups can use | ||
| + | * Solar Industry | ||
| + | * Calibrate Data | ||
| + | * Decisions: | ||
| + | * Normalization Method (Zenith Angle?) | ||
| + | * Prediction time (1 hr?) | ||
| + | * Solar Irradiance doesn't need to be sampled too quickly (1-2 mins ok) | ||
| + | * Understanding PV: | ||
| + | * How much in Hawaii | ||
| + | * Commercial and residential | ||
| + | * Projection of these | ||
| + | * Solar Thermal | ||
| + | * Solar Farms | ||
| + | * Concentrated Solar | ||
| + | * Energy Production | ||
| + | * PV Data Sheets | ||
| + | * 10-15% efficiency w/ lower cost panels | ||
| + | * 40% efficiency w/ increase in efficiencies, cost, etc. | ||
| + | * Breaks for Federal and State and HECO | ||
| + | * Larger contracts (PPA) | ||
| + | * Forecasting: | ||
| + | * Weather and time series prediction | ||
| + | * Predicting an hour | ||
| + | * Reasonable with just Least Squares | ||
| + | * Depends on normalization (ex. subtract mean of specific time of day/std, or zenith angle) | ||
| + | * Take **zenith angle**: Time of day and day of year in account | ||
| + | * Window (FIR filters) | ||
| + | * Straight average of data over time | ||
| + | * Online Methods: | ||
| + | * Estimate of parameter weight and update estimate based on new data | ||
| + | * New linear estimate | ||
| + | * Recursive Least Squares (RLS) | ||
| + | * Depends on first and second order (mean and covariance matrixes) | ||
| + | * Least Mean Squares (LMS) | ||
| + | * Won't perform as well | ||
| + | * Supervised and Unsupervised Learning: | ||
| + | * Nearest Neighbor (supervised) | ||
| + | * Support Vector Machine Kernels () | ||
| + | * Deep Learning () | ||
| + | * Clustering used for large dimensional data (unsupervised, Lots of factors) | ||
| + | * Estimation (regression) and Detection (classification) | ||
| ===== Reminders ===== | ===== Reminders ===== | ||
| - | * | + | * Weekly REIS Thursday Seminar 4:30-5:30 |