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forecasting:meeting_minutes_october_18_2016 [2016/10/19 03:09] jobatake |
forecasting:meeting_minutes_october_18_2016 [2021/09/19 21:59] |
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| - | ====== Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of October 18, 2016 ====== | ||
| - | ** Present Monday: Austin, Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie ** | ||
| - | ** Present Tuesday: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie ** | ||
| - | |||
| - | ===== Updates ===== | ||
| - | * Ask Sharif to meet with us | ||
| - | |||
| - | ===== Meeting with Dr. Kuh ===== | ||
| - | ===== Expectations ===== | ||
| - | * 3D plot: 2011, 2012 normalized and unnormalized for comparison | ||
| - | * LA more variation, but smoother | ||
| - | |||
| - | * Moving Average and Decimation/Downsample | ||
| - | * D and X from 2011: | ||
| - | * X = 8:00-4:00 (input data) | ||
| - | * D = 9:00-5:00 (normalized and downsampled, column) | ||
| - | * Y = Least Squares Equation = W.T(X) row = X.T(W) column | ||
| - | * Unnormalized = D bar, Y bar | ||
| - | * Statistical: | ||
| - | * Y - sig*Y + m | ||
| - | * D - sig*D + m | ||
| - | * Zenith: | ||
| - | * Y*cos(theta) | ||
| - | * D*cos(theta) | ||
| - | * W = (XX.T)^(-1)*XD <= XX.T*W = XD | ||
| - | * E^2 Averaged = (D-Y)^2 for every time | ||
| - | * MSE = 1/m (||D-Y||)^2 | ||
| - | * Don't need r bc cancel | ||
| - | * Ask Seyed what he did for decimation/downsample | ||
| - | * 1) Average and down sample | ||
| - | * 2) Take moving average | ||
| - | * Overlapping data points: | ||
| - | * 8:01-8:10 moving average | ||
| - | * Then downsample | ||
| - | * Filter then normalize | ||
| - | * <del>Normalize then filter</del> | ||
| - | * **Normalization: mean then deviation** | ||
| - | * Zenith Angle Filter: Zenith angle is from the 5th minute, 5 irradiance is averaged | ||
| - | * Bias term | ||
| - | * Number of taps is # present + number before | ||
| - | * 1 tap = present | ||
| - | * 2 tap = present + future (5 mins in our case) | ||
| - | * In weight matrix | ||
| - | * Row of 1's to the matrix to get bias term | ||
| - | * Statistical normalization: -mean/deviation | ||
| - | * Standard normalization 0 mean | ||
| - | * Estimate will need to be given back after the normalization | ||
| - | * 3D plot for both zenith and stat normalization | ||
| - | * Plot MSE | ||
| - | * y = MSE, x = # taps | ||
| - | * Train error goes down, test error decreases until flattens or increases | ||
| - | * Check 2012 MSE test against 2011 MSE train | ||
| - | * Keep 2011 W | ||
| - | * Get new X, D to compute new Y | ||
| - | * Flip: 2011 MSE test against 2012 MSE train | ||