Differences
This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
| Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision | ||
|
forecasting:meeting_minutes_october_18_2016 [2016/10/19 02:43] jobatake |
forecasting:meeting_minutes_october_18_2016 [2021/09/19 21:59] (current) |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Line 11: | Line 11: | ||
| * 3D plot: 2011, 2012 normalized and unnormalized for comparison | * 3D plot: 2011, 2012 normalized and unnormalized for comparison | ||
| * LA more variation, but smoother | * LA more variation, but smoother | ||
| - | |||
| * Moving Average and Decimation/Downsample | * Moving Average and Decimation/Downsample | ||
| + | * D and X from 2011: | ||
| + | * X = 8:00-4:00 (input data) | ||
| + | * D = 9:00-5:00 (normalized and downsampled, column) | ||
| + | * Y = Least Squares Equation = W.T(X) row = X.T(W) column | ||
| + | * Unnormalized = D bar, Y bar | ||
| + | * Statistical: | ||
| + | * Y - sig*Y + m | ||
| + | * D - sig*D + m | ||
| + | * Zenith: | ||
| + | * Y*cos(theta) | ||
| + | * D*cos(theta) | ||
| + | * W = (XX.T)^(-1)*XD <= XX.T*W = XD | ||
| + | * E^2 Averaged = (D-Y)^2 for every time | ||
| + | * MSE = 1/m (||D-Y||)^2 | ||
| + | * Don't need r bc cancel | ||
| * Ask Seyed what he did for decimation/downsample | * Ask Seyed what he did for decimation/downsample | ||
| * 1) Average and down sample | * 1) Average and down sample | ||
| Line 19: | Line 33: | ||
| * 8:01-8:10 moving average | * 8:01-8:10 moving average | ||
| * Then downsample | * Then downsample | ||
| - | * <del>Filter then normalize?</del> | + | * Filter then normalize |
| - | * Normalize then filter! | + | * <del>Normalize then filter</del> |
| * **Normalization: mean then deviation** | * **Normalization: mean then deviation** | ||
| - | * Zenith Angle Normalization: zenith angle, then filter | + | * Zenith Angle Filter: Zenith angle is from the 5th minute, 5 irradiance is averaged |
| + | * Bias term | ||
| + | * Number of taps is # present + number before | ||
| + | * 1 tap = present | ||
| + | * 2 tap = present + future (5 mins in our case) | ||
| + | * In weight matrix | ||
| + | * Row of 1's to the matrix to get bias term | ||
| * Statistical normalization: -mean/deviation | * Statistical normalization: -mean/deviation | ||
| + | * Standard normalization 0 mean | ||
| + | * Estimate will need to be given back after the normalization | ||
| * 3D plot for both zenith and stat normalization | * 3D plot for both zenith and stat normalization | ||
| + | * Plot MSE | ||
| + | * y = MSE, x = # taps | ||
| + | * Train error goes down, test error decreases until flattens or increases | ||
| + | * Check 2012 MSE test against 2011 MSE train | ||
| + | * Keep 2011 W | ||
| + | * Get new X, D to compute new Y | ||
| + | * Flip: 2011 MSE test against 2012 MSE train | ||
| + | * Correlation is 3D plot | ||
| + | * R=(1/m)XX.T= 10x10 matrix that is symmetric | ||