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Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of September 13, 2016
Present: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie
Updates
- Modified Meeting Hours: Tuesday 4:30-7:00 & Thursday 4:30-7:00
Saturday, September 10, 2016 (Proposal Presentations)
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
- Decisions:
- Normalization
- Prediction time
- Solar Irradiance doesn't need to be sampled too quickly (1-2 mins ok)
- Understanding PV:
- How much in Hawaii
- Commercial and residential
- Projection of these
- Solar Thermal
- Solar Farms
- Concentrated Solar
- Energy Production
- PV Data Sheets
- 10-15% efficiency w/ lower cost panels
- 40% efficiency w/ increase in efficiencies, cost, etc.
- Breaks for Federal and State and HECO
- Larger contracts (PPA)
- Forecasting:
- Weather and time series prediction
- Predicting an hour
- Reasonable with just Least Squares
- Depends on normalization (ex. subtract mean of specific time of day/std, or zenith angle)
- Take zenith angle: Time of day and day of year in account
- Depends on first and second order (mean and covariance matrixes)
- Online Methods:
- Estimate of parameter weight and update estimate based on new data
- New linear estimate
- Recursive Least Squares (RLS)
- Least Mean Squares (LMS)
- Won't perform as well
Thursday, September 15, 2016