Forecasting Meeting Minutes for Week of October 18, 2016
Present Monday: Austin, Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie
Present Tuesday: Gordon, Brieanna, Jaimie
Updates
- Ask Sharif to meet with us
Meeting with Dr. Kuh
Expectations
- 3D plot: 2011, 2012 normalized and unnormalized for comparison
- LA more variation, but smoother
- Moving Average and Decimation/Downsample
- D and X from 2011:
- X = 8:00-4:00 (input data)
- D = 9:00-5:00 (normalized and downsampled, column)
- Y = Least Squares Equation = W.T(X) row = X.T(W) column
- Unnormalized = D bar, Y bar
- Statistical:
- Y - sig*Y + m
- D - sig*D + m
- Zenith:
- Y*cos(theta)
- D*cos(theta)
- W = (XX.T)^(-1)*XD ⇐ XX.T*W = XD
- E^2 Averaged = (D-Y)^2 for every time
- MSE = 1/m (||D-Y||)^2
- Don't need r bc cancel
- Ask Seyed what he did for decimation/downsample
- 1) Average and down sample
- 2) Take moving average
- Overlapping data points:
- 8:01-8:10 moving average
- Then downsample
- Filter then normalize
Normalize then filter- Normalization: mean then deviation
- Zenith Angle Filter: Zenith angle is from the 5th minute, 5 irradiance is averaged
- Bias term
- Number of taps is # present + number before
- 1 tap = present
- 2 tap = present + future (5 mins in our case)
- In weight matrix
- Row of 1's to the matrix to get bias term
- Statistical normalization: -mean/deviation
- Standard normalization 0 mean
- Estimate will need to be given back after the normalization
- 3D plot for both zenith and stat normalization
- Plot MSE
- y = MSE, x = # taps
- Train error goes down, test error decreases until flattens or increases
- Check 2012 MSE test against 2011 MSE train
- Keep 2011 W
- Get new X, D to compute new Y
- Flip: 2011 MSE test against 2012 MSE train
- Correlation is 3D plot
- R=(1/m)XX.T= 10×10 matrix that is symmetric
Authors
Contributing authors:
Created by jobatake on 2016/10/19 02:43.